As at 8 February 2025, the latest estimate for asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 was 2.1% (a 1-in 48 chance).
On the plus side, that also means a 97.9% chance of it missing.
This is all according to the Center for Near-Earth Objects Studies (CNEOS) Sentry, whose analysis is "based on 347 observations spanning 45.627 days".
More information (if you dare):
Next up on my viewing list: Armageddon (1998), starring Bruce Willis. :)