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Asteroid (currently) estimated to have 1-in-48 chance of hitting Earth in 2032

Bunny

As at 8 February 2025, the latest estimate for asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 was 2.1% (a 1-in 48 chance).

On the plus side, that also means a 97.9% chance of it missing.

This is all according to the Center for Near-Earth Objects Studies (CNEOS) Sentry, whose analysis is "based on 347 observations spanning 45.627 days".

More information (if you dare):

Space.com - Odds of an asteroid impact in 2032 just went up. Here's why experts say you shouldn't worry

CNEOS Sentry

Next up on my viewing list: Armageddon (1998), starring Bruce Willis. :)

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  • I read about this somewhere else a few days ago and I believe the calculations are subject to change - hopefully to the better chance that it won’t hit us!

    On an unrelated TV programme some time ago, Prof Brian Cox said that the earth will eventually be destroyed. If I remember correctly, there might have been a figure of ‘will be destroyed in x years’  from now. He looked pretty happy to be telling the viewers this, perhaps because it would be in an unimaginably long time from now, or perhaps he has pre booked the first hotel on the moon.

  • in reply to ArchaeC

    I think the moon will be destroyed at the same time as Earth.

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