Asteroid (currently) estimated to have 1-in-48 chance of hitting Earth in 2032

As at 8 February 2025, the latest estimate for asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 was 2.1% (a 1-in 48 chance).

On the plus side, that also means a 97.9% chance of it missing.

This is all according to the Center for Near-Earth Objects Studies (CNEOS) Sentry, whose analysis is "based on 347 observations spanning 45.627 days".

More information (if you dare):

Space.com - Odds of an asteroid impact in 2032 just went up. Here's why experts say you shouldn't worry

CNEOS Sentry

Next up on my viewing list: Armageddon (1998), starring Bruce Willis. :)

Parents Reply
  • Oh no! That means …. we all go TOGETHER

    That is actually a great opportunity - all the super rich will no doubt have their own escape rockets so if we find it isn't going to hit us then nobody should tell them and when they dissapear off we just program their rocket to, err, incercept the asteroid as it passes by.

    Extreme sightseeing if you will.

    That should help a lot with the wealth distribution on earth.

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