I think it's a common problem for us. Sometimes people don't expect a fully thought through answer so it's ok to give your first thought. You can also qualify your reply by saying you aren't sure. For example,
Q what is the weather doing today
A I'm not sure, perhaps it will rain.
This can work in lots of situations. People aren't too bothered by the accuracy of your prediction,
I think it's a common problem for us. Sometimes people don't expect a fully thought through answer so it's ok to give your first thought. You can also qualify your reply by saying you aren't sure. For example,
Q what is the weather doing today
A I'm not sure, perhaps it will rain.
This can work in lots of situations. People aren't too bothered by the accuracy of your prediction,