Two minutes to midnight

laddie49 said:

Struggling to read

If you click/tap the graph, do you see a bigger version that you can zoom?

Yes, it's the same timeframe. Democrat (blue) / Republican (red) shows the political allegiance of the incumbent president at the time the clock was adjusted. 

I'm not totally convinced (yet) that I can see the pattern you mention, so I might try drawing a different picture. 

One additional thought is that even if the red dots are all closer to midnight, does this imply a causal relationship, or that a worsening political situation under democrats leads the nation to swing to the right? To put it another way, do the republicans cause the red dots or are they inheriting a democrat mess? Yes, the most recent dots are both red, but the biggest *drops* since 1991 are all Democrat, whilst the vast improvement 1984 - 1991 are all Republican...

Struggling to read the very small print along the bottom (dates) How does this line up with the dates on your previous graph? Is it the same timeframe? The red dots are definitely closer to midnight than the blue dots.

Yes I accept that. Sloppy reading on my part. I saw a 1971 quote on page 1 and never read all the way to the end. Nevertheless there are very strict protocols I am sure to avoid confusion/accidents.

I am sure if the Americans are really changing those protocols we would not know anything about it.

Maybe some "fake news"????

laddie49 said:

This is a very old fact sheet

Er... the date on that doc says 2015. I know that 3 years on the internet is an eternity, but come on! 

So, your comment about the leanings of the government got me thinking, and I felt we needed some data:

I guess you are hinting that right wing governments ramp up the rhetoric to keep the electorate looking for bogeymen whilst they are getting fleeced?

Perhaps.

One of my takes on the graph is that the clock was not all that bad during the (sudden) Cuban missile crisis or indeed when the American early warning radar interpreted the rising moon as a vast Soviet attack coming over the pole. 

Documented historical facts show that there have been repeated "near misses" with these weapons, even when scientists thought our proximity to war was more distant. So these ongoing hiccups are effectively someone rolling a die: something will go wrong from time to time, because people aren't perfect. 

If the political view is more relaxed, it's less likely that someone will misconstrue an errant warning as a real attack. 

When the rhetoric ramps up, there is an increased risk of miscalculation, resulting in escalation. 

If the so-called leader of the free world is level headed, critical decisions which must be made in a matter of minutes are more likely to be made with due regard to the potential downsides if the incoming information is wrong, even if the situation is tense. 

At the height of the Cold War, both sides knew full well that a real attack would begin with a torrential first strike, or a tit-for-tat escalation of an existing conventional conflict. Therefore if the warning systems suggested a single or small handful of incoming warheads, people got suspicious because it didn't fit the expected pattern they'd trained for. 

Unfortunately, Kim is likely to limit an initial attack to less than 5 missiles, because he'll be trying to make the US stop and think again. He knows he has no chance in an all-out war.

The US and the DPRK have both been needling one another and point-scoring. Both have leaders that would most likely quickly approve a launch if they thought they were under attack. 

The American and South Korean forces seem to be increasingly attempting to goad North Korea into doing something dumb. I do believe that at least some in the American government intend to make good on their assertion that Kim be removed, as long as the folk dying as a result are far away, don't have the same colour skin, and don't have relations that might decide the next US election. This is the same aggressive behaviour that ordered U2 flights over sensitive soviet military sites at the height of the Cuban missile crisis - they tried to goad the soviets so that they would get the pretext they wanted for "defending the American Way"(!)

Similarly, the next logical step for Kim is an atmospheric test of a thermonuclear device, somewhere in the Pacific. The Americans are likely to view such a test as an unacceptable provocation, even though this is "do as we say, not as we did".

NK has repeatedly surprised with its advancing capabilities, so another area to keep an eye on is SLBM, which would render any debates about effective range somewhat moot. 

To cap it all, folk that were around during the last war are pretty much gone now. People have forgotten what nuclear weapons really do. Trump has supposedly asked his generals, "but why can't we use them?". Everything today is just a big video game.

In summary, the clock is not a guarantee of war. It is of course just a bunch of scientists trying to say, "Hey, politicians! We're worried!".

War may well not come at all, nothing is certain. But all the pieces are in the right places on the chess board for something to go abysmally wrong here. 

I'll leave you with this:

www.youtube.com/watch

An interesting view. What do you base that assertion on?

US nuke tech is based on very old systems that largely work, and are more secure than newer stuff precisely because the antiquated systems haven't been linked to anything else. Most of the stuff in the linked paper relates to people being stupid with some quite dangerous toys.

Oversimplifying, the Americans are now talking of updating, perhaps so that the president can launch their minuteman missiles from his iPad. The problem is that'll open the door to the possibility of someone getting in over the wires...

This is a very old fact sheet DF5. I am sure modern technology has reduced the risk of accidents a lot.

Thanks for this graph DF5 that is very interesting indeed.

What jumps out at me is the political situation when the clock was closest to midnight. Might just be a coincidence but it seems Conservative governments are more scary than Labour ones.:)

So we were last this close during the Thatcher/Reagan years. 

FWIW my grandparents lived through WWII. They were bombed out. Grandma was out the first time around, which was lucky because the whole house was destroyed. After the second time, my father recalled laying in his bed but looking up and seeing the stars in the sky(!)

laddie49 said:

That clock has been close to midnight my whole life. 69 years.

I Post this in great support of this being a very good answer... although I am personally some Twenty Years younger. I suspect there to be no-one upon this Forum who has actually lived through WW1 and/or WW2, and all of the "anxiousness" that occurred...? (To give practical/genuine support/advice, I mean...)

...and this is also relevant:

https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/04/Close%20Calls%20with%20Nuclear%20Weapons.pdf

Well, of course the clock has always been close to midnight. Maybe this'll help:

The point is, it's as close to midnight now as it has ever been.  

1953: Two minutes to midnight.

1960: America nearly launches unprovoked nuclear strike on Russia when NORAD early warning system mistakes the rising moon for a Soviet first-strike

1962: Cuban Missile Crisis

1983: Operation Able Archer. Stanislav Petrov saves the world & is court-martialled.  

That clock has been close to midnight my whole life. 69 years.

If they do start throwing nukes about I would hope one hit me on the head rather than a close miss killing me by a slow death from radiation.

In other circumstances such as an epidemic or climate change I am in a location where a subsistence existence could be possible for a time.

Private water supply gravity fed, sewage system , solar panels which could be modified to provide DC power in daylight hours, wood burner with back boiler for hot water and a gravity fed radiator. Problem is when other survivors notice that I (or whoever is living here)  would be run off or killed without doubt. When push comes to shove I would do the same but I am too old to put up much of a fight. I have no weapons apart from axes and knives.

I would hope my wine cellar was well stocked. :)

im way to prepared food drink armor vehicles and weapons

Disambiguating Cynosure said:

your encouraging certain answers from myself and

Guilty as charged, DC.

I wanted to know what you all think. 

I shall look up some of your suggestions, since there are some that I cannot recall seeing before. 

Yes, I am well aware that humanity always seems to think it is living in the end-times, and that no one ever seems to be predicting annihilation beyond the short term, so they can sell you some guaranteed solution, such as a book(!).

Even in 1000A.D., it seems folk were "a bit edgy".

People on my doorstep brandishing "watchtower" and asking me if I've thought about the end of the world always look at me strangely and decide they can't stay after all when I cheerfully tell them that I have, and attempt to debate the consequences of our Sun exhausting its fuel.

Do you visit the ocean often? It sounds like it is a special place for you?

I am very glad to hear you are aware that Tuesday is Soylent Green day. Did you ever read the short story "The Food of the Gods", by Arthur C. Clarke? I had wondered if you were hinting at an intent to make use of whatever protein might be found...(!). I think I would rather stick to rabbit that has been sheltering in its burrow. 

Who wants to fill Stanislav Petrov's shoes this time around? Anyone?

Good Fortune to yourself Mr.Chinese-ICBM, and/or MotorCar Company...

...I was going to reply to certain queries, yet now that this Thread is a bit longer, I notice - thus far - your encouraging certain answers from myself and MattBucks quite a bit...? Thus I attempt this Post, which, please be aware, may disappoint you, and I apologise and do not mean to so much...

There may be a few Internet Keywords which you might like to try: Survivalism, Prepping, SAS Survival... Financial Times (The), Pole Reversal, Carrington Event 1859, Solar Storm/Solar Flare, Apocalypse...
...This is, um, "stuff" which I grew up upon and have managed to live through so-far, which are always "on the brink of occurring" and are still pertinent... Unlike the numerous Asteroid Strikes, Solar Flares, Religious discussions, Cold War, Nuclear Threat, Global Warming, and updated "End of the Worlds" in 1999, Y2K, and 2016...

Concerning "NK"... this is a Political Topic, and so I have little interest in discussing such discussions, sorry.

Concerning the OCEAN (** Yay! The Ocean! **) ... this was an initial reply and you did not mention being "vaporised" in the first place? Yes due to food, no due to "serenity" (...?), and yes to get away from the masses...

Concerning "methods of incapacitating people" and the topic of, um, "killing"... I do not appreciate such a turn of subject and so I shall not answer, sorry. However, I suspect that (typically with myself) that my last Post may have been misunderstood. To whit, I may suggest more Internet Keywords which you may know: Self Defence, Incapacitation... and Soylent Green!

To close this Post, I know that this is long, and that I do bring up a lot of other Topics... and for a change, this is quite deliberate on my part. Good luck, for the topic of "Apocalypses" is a very varied and interesting digression, an attitude all of its own, which is nothing at all like that which is portrayed in Fictional Films or Mainstream Media.

Have a nice day (!).

Is that because you want something serene to look at before you get vaporised, or because you figure you have more of a chance out of a city and near a potential source of food?

Not completely sure, which I suppose is why I started the thread.

There is enough tinned food to last the family for at least a week, assuming we only need a tin or two each a day, on account of not needing to move around much initially. Some cheap emergency ship's rations. A plastic (full) 25 litre drum of water, purification tablets, antibiotics, old transistor radio, torch and batteries in a metal tin, a millbank bag for basic water filtration, bars of soap, containers of salt, some multivitamins and some fat.

Elsewhere nearby there are about half a dozen home-built rabbit snares, plus the parts and hand tools to make quite a few more, two more (empty) 25 litre water drums (which I would admittedly need a few minutes to fill), plus an old scaffold pole that could maybe brace the upper floor if there was any chance of a blast nearby. A bottle of cheap bleach which can be used to sterilise water if you dilute it enough.

Rolls of black bin-liners - since I figure in the short term they can be used for a bunch of things, such as liners for a bucket (makeshift toilet) or to fill with earth from the garden, then piled up to form some measure of screening from gamma rays in case of fallout.

Various first-aid related stuff, some of it suitable for burns. 

There isn't really the space to do any more without adversely affecting ordinary life (who wants to spend a fortune or be forever falling over stuff for something that might never happen?), but I guess I am fairly satisfied that I've done what I can to increase our chances at modest outlay.

I know we can use burdock or silverleaf roots as a source of carbohydrate, and nettles are pretty ubiquitous for some vitamins, minerals, and even some protein. There are two more bottles of home-made rosehip syrup in the cupboard.

Longer term, it would depend on how much contamination and disease there was, how much hassle we'd get from folk (or the vestiges of the state) wanting to rip us off, and stuff like simple injuries going septic without better medical treatment.

I have plenty of experience in coping with short-term loss of electricity (1 - 14 days) and know it isn't pleasant but it's perfectly do-able. In the long-term I think the biggest effect that I'd find difficult to get used to would be the lack of flush-able toilets. Would our generators still work, at least until the diesel runs out? Would our windmills?

Losing all communication with the outside world is actually quite pleasant! Trying to keep warm isn't and I live nowhere near trees for fuel once our ample supply of gas bottles run out (probably 6 - 12 months). Food / hunting / raiding trips would need to be by boat for me to the nearest population centre / mainland so I'm thinking I'd probably starve over the winter when a sea crossing would be off limits! On the plus side, being raided over the winter is probably not a worry either! Although fishing is a good option around here once we've run out of / eaten all of the livestock around here - which might last a year maximum.

How would you cope @DongFeng5 ?