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If pro-independence parties win tomorrow

TheCatWoman

How likely do you think it is that the UK will break up?

Would you like to see independance of Scotland and Wales?

What of England, how would it react?

What would you see as a workable alternative to  control from Westminster?

Personally I'd be quite happy for the UK to break up and reform in a more equal way, maybe as a federation. 

I think it could drag our politics kicking and screaming into the 21stC.

I think it would be good if the devolved parliaments were given more powers and we all elect representatives to a reformed House of Lords that would oversee things that we could share, like defence, national security, national infrastructure ands things where it would be counter productive to have seperately. I think if that happened then there would also be calls for some Englsih regions to have more devolved powers too. I think the UK is quite unusual in its lack of regional devolution, other countries seem to be more regionally devolved but retain a strong national government.

I think England would be in uproar and would really hate it, when you live somewhere like Anglesey you get a real sense that many English people don't see us as a national with its own traditions and parliament that makes some rules, it feels like we're treated like a conquered people, even after 800 years. I say this as an English person. I do think England should have its own parliament to decide purely English issues as I agree with many English people that the current system feels unbalanced, it dosent' help that so many poeple are so poorly educated in politics.

 I guess we'll find out over the coming days and months how all this will play out

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  • England would be better off.

    If the other countries really want to leave, they should be careful what they wish for. England would play hard ball. No pound so they would need their own currency (not just my idea Bank of England has said so), or to adopt the euro which cones with lots of strings. National debt split, no clean slate for them. No pension and welfare money. I believe all would go bust in a year or two as the run large budget unsustainable budget deficits. Living standards will fall. Healthcare and benefits would have to be cut.

    If I remember rightly it was said for Scotland there would be a border. I assume the same would apply elsewhere.

    There would be different passports.

    Each would have to negotiate their own trade agreements. Economies of each are too small to have much leverage.

    Defence bases would move to England losing more revenue. Shipbuilding would move to England, it won't be in Scotland d for military vessels (this was stated in the last Scottish referendum).

    England would largely continue as it is. It would not be ideal though.

    Scotland would have to drill for oil.

    NI would have to merge with Ireland. I think Wales would just fail.

    It would not be good. It could be done, but it is a fantasy to think people would be better off.

    England would quite probably go right, probably even more than it is going to go anyway now.

    The main winners would be our enemies as overall influence would be less.

  • in reply to Stuart333

    You are thinking about it the wrong way. I don’t think anyone seeking independence is thinking it would lead to people being better off. It’s about making our own decisions. For better or worse.

    I think Wales and Scotland would be happy having the clout of those countries you mentioned. We don’t really have any as it stands anyway. I also think England isn’t as important in the modern world as it thinks. 

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  • in reply to Stuart333

    You are thinking about it the wrong way. I don’t think anyone seeking independence is thinking it would lead to people being better off. It’s about making our own decisions. For better or worse.

    I think Wales and Scotland would be happy having the clout of those countries you mentioned. We don’t really have any as it stands anyway. I also think England isn’t as important in the modern world as it thinks. 

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  • in reply to goesbysteve

    I was not trying to be contentious. I supported Brexit for a number of reasons. The desire to be self-governed is reasonable. But there are practicalities. And the English regions dislike having no voice as much as everyone else in a London centric system.

    People can be self governing if they want. But that normally means control of tax and ability to issue debt. If that happens then there are issues of currency since England won't underwrite another country's debt.

    You then have the budget to consider. Scotland is running a 11.6% deficit, including a geographic share of oil revenue. 3% is the max sustainable level considered by the EU. The UK is at 5.1%, similar to France but below the US. 11% is not going to work. 

    Wales is harder to get a good feeling for without spending lots of time. A lot depends on what the UK would agree to continue paying for, like pension liabilities. But it may be more sustainable than I thought. However there is no reason to expect England would accept all the liabilities for the UK. [Edit: removed dodgy stats. It needs more time to get good ones.]

    The economic issues are not trivial but are often ignored. People may want independence, but not worse hospitals or lower benefits etc.

    The UK got away with leaving the EU as it is big enough, it was forecast to be c. 2% hit, which is a reasonable recession. Not fun but survivable.

    If there were to be a federal UK instead, then there would be an English Parliament. But England gas 85% of the GDP of the UK, do it would unavoidably unbalanced.

    The other countries could end up with less influence. Scotland is significantly overrepresented in the House of Commons at the moment for example. In a federal parliament it would likely have less.

    There are real economic and political problems, as well as long term liability issues.  Anything that has been together for centuries is hard to separate. It is possible of course, but not without more consequences than politicians would admit. I

    You also have the issue of where investment would go. You could have a race to the bottom on business rates and taxes, to dissuade investment from going to England, but that would be even worse if you want to maintain the current size of the state.

    If people really want this, then there should be an honest debate. Emotions are fine, but economics dictate whether it works in practice.