It’s bad. The peace process was based on a lie and now that lie is falling apart. A number of lies really. That Northern island could be simultaneously an extension of the Republic of Ireland, a kind of unofficial province of the republic, and at the same time an integral undiluted part of the UK.
Then there was the lie that a political process could some how lead two sides with mutually exclusive aims to a final outcome they could both live with.
the peace process only worked when it finely balances both sides so they both believe they could use it to get what they want through politics but somehow never do. They used to say that war was politics pursued by other means but in NI politics is really war pursued by other means. And as soon as it becomes clear that one side can no longer defeat the other through political means there’s every reason to believe the side at a disadvantage would return to violence.
it’s a really nasty business and I can’t see it getting better unless the EU is willing to take one ‘for the team’ and let NI simultaneously have its cake and eat it by acting as if it were simultaneously both inside and outside of the customs Union.
