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Asteroid (currently) estimated to have 1-in-48 chance of hitting Earth in 2032

Bunny

As at 8 February 2025, the latest estimate for asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 was 2.1% (a 1-in 48 chance).

On the plus side, that also means a 97.9% chance of it missing.

This is all according to the Center for Near-Earth Objects Studies (CNEOS) Sentry, whose analysis is "based on 347 observations spanning 45.627 days".

More information (if you dare):

Space.com - Odds of an asteroid impact in 2032 just went up. Here's why experts say you shouldn't worry

CNEOS Sentry

Next up on my viewing list: Armageddon (1998), starring Bruce Willis. :)

Parents

  • I prefer "deep impact" personally. These things are everywhere and at least we've got a bit of a warning and the chances are it's not going to hit us.

    I read an article about a week ago saying that currently the impact if it happens will be somewhere around the equator. It'll be very bad news for any populated land mass it hits. 

    If you want cheering up or worrying further if one appears from behind the sun, we'd not see it coming until it's very close.

    If something huge was definitely going to hit would you rather know or not? I stress enough on a daily basis without the thought of  a constant threat of imminent annihilation. 

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  • I prefer "deep impact" personally. These things are everywhere and at least we've got a bit of a warning and the chances are it's not going to hit us.

    I read an article about a week ago saying that currently the impact if it happens will be somewhere around the equator. It'll be very bad news for any populated land mass it hits. 

    If you want cheering up or worrying further if one appears from behind the sun, we'd not see it coming until it's very close.

    If something huge was definitely going to hit would you rather know or not? I stress enough on a daily basis without the thought of  a constant threat of imminent annihilation. 

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