has anyone else got an obsession on predicting, forecasting and probabilities, a mindset which needs to know the future before you arrive there. I think I am risk adverse and socially bias against society, so I need to know to feel safe.
has anyone else got an obsession on predicting, forecasting and probabilities, a mindset which needs to know the future before you arrive there. I think I am risk adverse and socially bias against society, so I need to know to feel safe.
thanks Alex 
Googled Nate Silver and the book, fascinating subject, reading more.
I forecasted Obama was going to win the 2nd term due to the east coast industrial voting bias which makes North east a voting social bias in america, it think it was set up this way after the civil war to keep the northeast in power, 80% of the time. So, unless the California and Texas spanic populations grow, the whole voting system in america needs to change to be more balanced voting,, the north is tech money, and the south is oil money. 40% of people in america speak spanish as there first language(mostly in the south), if that keeps growing,, new spain will be formed in america again, that means america splits in two.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Spain
I have been involved in america pentagon think tank project giving forecasts. My technique was to use positioning flows and work it out from there using a baseline point, so in a sense I was hedging against myself, the trick was just knowing when to jump your own fence. But in reality 100% probability certain is the 100% bearing of uncertain. No is No until it happens, until then always swim against the shoal on the edge and turn fast away or into the shoal at the true now point of information(source timing and positioning), ie local source data, the best being yourself being there, the point of now relativity which is not delayed by proxy media, so that a chessboard control can be placed in the game(rigged).
Zero-hedge funds get stock prices 15 minutes before the prices are released to the mass population. There is no gamble in big business only organised corruption by rigging markets top to bottom.
I love spotting social bias, were information is tailored in the media to push the directionof the mass consensus on the bell curve one way, whilst the business elite moves the other way to maximise profit via social scripting propaganda via media to banking to business to government lobbying to control of governments via chamber of commerce and the central bank/mint.
A good one today for mass social scripting was the Murray tennis game.
